Labaran 1 ga Afrilu: Masana kasuwa kwanan nan sun bayyana cewa hauhawar farashin takin zamani da mai na fara yin tasiri ga shawarwarin noma na manyan ƙasashen da ke fitar da kayayyaki. Masana kasuwa a Thailand da Amurka sun nuna cewa manoman shinkafa na iya rage yawan amfanin da suke samarwa, wanda hakan zai iya haifar da raguwar samar da shinkafa kuma zai iya ƙara ta'azzara ƙarancin wadata a duniya a shekara mai zuwa.Duk da haka, Indiya tana da isasshen takin zamani da tallafin gwamnati, wanda ke taimakawa wajen kare kasuwar cikin gida daga tasirin kai tsaye.
Ana sa ran wannan bambanci tsakanin matsin lamba na farashi da tallafin manufofi zai faɗaɗa rashin daidaiton samar da kayayyaki na yanki, wanda hakan zai iya tallafawa farashin shinkafa na duniya da kuma ƙara dogaro ga masu shigo da kayayyaki na duniya kan wadatar da Indiya ke samarwa.
Thailand:
Matsin kuɗi yana shafar shawarwarin noma
Ganin yadda farashin taki da mai suka yi tashin gwauron zabi, masu sha'awar kasuwa a Thailand sun lura da alamun farko na sauyin halayen manoma. Wani mai sayar da kaya a Bangkok ya ce idan aka yi la'akari da ƙarancin farashin shinkafa a yanzu, ya yi imanin cewa manoma za su fi rage yawan takin da ake amfani da shi ko kuma su rage yankin noma.
Wani mai sayar da kayan lambu a Bangkok ya ce shuka amfanin gona na wannan kakar yana da matuƙar ƙalubale, ba wai kawai saboda hauhawar farashin takin zamani ba, har ma da hauhawar farashin mai. Farashin mai ya tashi da kusan kashi 30%, kuma ƙarancin wadata yana kawo cikas ga ayyukan girbi, wanda ke haifar da lalacewar amfanin gona a yankuna da dama.
A cewar sabon rahoto daga Ma'aikatar Aikin Gona ta Amurka (FAS), ana sa ran noman shinkafa a Thailand na shekarar kudi ta 2025/26 (Janairu zuwa Disamba) zai ragu zuwa tan miliyan 20.4, kasa da tan miliyan 20.8 na shekarar da ta gabata. Wannan galibi ana danganta shi ne da raguwar yankin da aka shuka daga hekta miliyan 11.08 a shekarar da ta gabata zuwa hekta miliyan 10.80.
Amurka:
Farashin taki da ke ƙaruwa yana barazana ga yankunan da ake shuka taki
A Amurka, ana sa ran karuwar farashin taki zai yi tasiri sosai kan shawarwarin shuka, musamman idan ribar ta riga ta yi kadan.
Wani ma'aikacin masana'antar abinci ya bayyana cewa hauhawar farashin taki a kwanan nan zai yi babban tasiri ga kasuwar shinkafar Amurka. Masana a fannin sun nuna cewa har yanzu akwai kusan kashi 30% na karancin taki da ake bukata don amfanin gonakin shinkafa na 2026/27. Manoma ne suka sayi mafi yawan takin kafin barkewar rikicin a Gabas ta Tsakiya. Kafin yakin Gabas ta Tsakiya, farashin takin phosphate ya yi tsami tsakanin dala $475 zuwa $500 a kowace tan, amma yanzu ya tashi zuwa dala $800 a kowace tan ko ma fiye da haka.
Wani mai sharhi kan kasuwar shinkafa ta Amurka ya nuna cewa tun bayan barkewar rikicin a Gabas ta Tsakiya, farashin taki ya karu da kashi 70%-75%, wanda hakan ya haifar da damuwa game da raguwar wuraren dasa shuki, kodayake har yanzu ba a san takamaiman tasirin da hakan zai yi ba.
Duk da haka, yanayin ya bambanta daga wuri zuwa wuri. A California, ana sa ran yawan shinkafar matsakaiciya zai kasance cikin kwanciyar hankali. Wani manomin ya ce saboda rashin amfanin gona mai kyau, yankin noman shinkafa a California ba zai ragu ba.
Baya ga farashin takin zamani, masu samar da takin suna fuskantar matsin lamba na farashi mai yawa, ciki har da sufuri, sinadarai da marufi, wanda hakan ke ƙara rage ribar da ake samu.
Rahoton niyyar shuka da Ma'aikatar Noma ta Amurka ta fitar a ranar 31 ga Maris ya tabbatar da tsammanin kasuwa. Rahoton ya nuna cewa yankin da ake shuka shinkafa mai dogon hatsi a wannan shekarar shine eka miliyan 1.648, raguwar kashi 24% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, kuma zai kuma zama mafi ƙarancin matakin tun 1983, wanda ke nuna raguwar ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki.
Indiya:
Matakan gwamnati na rage tasirin taki
Sabanin haka, Indiya ta yi kama da ba ta da kariya daga sauyin farashin taki a duniya, godiya ga isasshen adadin kayan da take da su da kuma matakan da gwamnati ta ɗauka kafin lokacin shukar kaka.
Ma'aikatar Sinadarai da Takin Zamani ta Indiya ta fitar da wani rahoto a ranar 10 ga Maris, inda ta bayyana cewa a lokacin da ake ci gaba da noman farkon bazara (daga 1 ga Oktoba, 2025 zuwa 5 ga Maris, 2026), samar da urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), potassium chloride (MOP), da takin nitrogen-phosphorus-kiln compound (NPKS) ya isa sosai, wanda zai iya biyan buƙatun noma, kuma yanayin kaya na ƙasa yana da kyau.
Takardar ta ƙara da cewa domin rage haɗarin samar da kayayyaki da kuma tabbatar da samar da kayayyaki ba tare da katsewa ba, gwamnati ta himmatu wajen yin hulɗa da ƙasashe masu arzikin albarkatu don sauƙaƙe sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyoyi na dogon lokaci da kuma yarjejeniyoyi na fahimta tsakanin kamfanonin takin zamani na Indiya da masu samar da kayayyaki na ƙasashen duniya. Waɗannan shirye-shiryen sun haɗa da shigo da tan miliyan 3.1 na taki kowace shekara daga Saudiyya, tan miliyan 3.01 daga Rasha, da kuma tan miliyan 2.5 daga Morocco.
Ma'aikatar Noma ta Indiya ta bayyana cewa Indiya na ƙara yawan shigo da kaya ta hanyar tayin. Ya zuwa ranar 10 ga Maris, yawan shigo da kaya ya ƙaru da kashi 36.6% duk shekara. Wani mai fitar da shinkafa a Delhi ya ce bisa ga fahimtarsa, takin zamani ba matsala ba ce har yanzu saboda haɗakar kayayyakin Indiya ta bambanta.
Kakakin Ma'aikatar Harkokin Waje Randhir Jaswal ya ce a taron manema labarai na ministoci da aka gudanar a ranar 19 ga Maris cewa, dangane da yanayin samar da taki a yanzu, musamman ga amfanin gona na lokacin shukar kaka a shekarar 2026, yawan takin ya isa. Ma'aikatar Takin Zamani ta kuma fitar da tayin duniya gaba daya don magance halin da ake ciki, kuma ta sami amsa mai kyau. Muna sa ran yawancin takin da aka yi oda daga hanyoyi daban-daban za su isa nan da karshen Maris.
Masana a kasuwa sun kara da cewa duk da cewa farashin taki ya tashi, amma da wuya Indiya ta fuskanci matsala saboda gwamnati za ta dauki nauyin tasirin karuwar farashi. Wannan yayi kama da yanayin da ake ciki a kasuwar mai, inda farashin mai na duniya ya tashi amma farashin mai na cikin gida a Indiya bai tashi ba.
Lokacin Saƙo: Afrilu-21-2026
