A ranar 11 ga watan Yunin wannan shekarar, Cibiyar Hasashen Yanayi ta Hukumar Kula da Teku da Yanayi ta Amurka (NOAA) ta fitar da gargadin El Niño a hukumance - kalmomin da aka rubuta a hukumance su ne "El Niño ya iso". Wannan ba rahoton yanayi na yau da kullun ba ne na shekara-shekara. Kimanta yiwuwar faruwar wannan lamari a lokaci guda ya nuna cewa yuwuwar faruwar wannan lamari ta rikide zuwa matakin "mai ƙarfi sosai" tsakanin Nuwamba 2026 da Janairu 2027 ya kai kashi 63%, kuma ƙarfinsa zai "zama ɗaya daga cikin manyan mutane a tarihi tare da rikodin kayan aiki tun daga 1950". Matsakaicin hasashen da Cibiyar Hasashen Yanayi ta Turai (ECMWF) ta yi ya fi tsanani: ana sa ran cewa yanayin zafin teku a yankin Niño 3.4 zai kai +3℃ a watan Disamba na wannan shekarar, kuma wasu yanayi ma sun wuce +4℃.
Domin fahimtar muhimmancin wannan adadi: Babban abin da ya faru na El Niño tun lokacin da aka fara rikodin yanayi na zamani ya faru ne a shekarar 2015-16, tare da kololuwar rashin daidaituwar yanayi na +2.6℃.Idan hasashen da ke sama ya cika, abin da zai faru a 2026-27 zai zarce shi da akalla kashi 15%, wanda zai shiga wani yanayi da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba.
Me tarihin tarihi ke gaya mana?
El Niño ba sabon abu bane, amma duk lokacin da wani lamari na "ƙarfi mai ƙarfi" ya faru, yana barin tabo a tarihin noma.
1997-98: Ma'aunin Niño 3.4 mafi girma a wannan lamari ya kasance kusan +2.3℃, wanda hakan ya sanya ta zama ɗaya daga cikin mafi ƙarfi a ƙarni na 20. Indonesia, Philippines, da Thailand sun sha fama da fari mai tsanani. Hukumar Abinci da Noma ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (FAO) ta ba da rahoton cewa yawan amfanin gona a Amurka ta Tsakiya da yankin Caribbean ya ragu da kusan kashi 15% zuwa 20% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata. Wasu ƙasashe sun fuskanci asara mafi tsanani. Yankunan da aka noma alkama a Brazil da Argentina sun ragu sosai saboda ruwan sama mara kyau. A Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya, wannan lamari ya haifar da asarar kusan tan miliyan 15 na shinkafa.
2015-16: Dukansu sun kai kololuwar +2.6℃, wanda shine mafi girma a tarihin zamani. Noman masara a Indiya ya ragu da kusan kashi 4%, kuma noman shinkafa ya ragu da kusan kashi 1%. Kasuwar Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya ta shafi, kuma farashin shinkafa ya tashi daidai da haka, wanda ya tilasta wa Indiya ta ci gaba da tsaurara takunkumin fitar da kaya. Kudancin Afirka ta sha fama da fari mai tsanani, kuma samar da wutar lantarki ta madatsar ruwa ta Kariba da ke Zambia da Zimbabwe ya ragu sosai, wanda ya haifar da matsalar makamashi ta biyu da ta bazu a ƙasashe da dama.
A shekarar 2023-24: Hukumar Kula da Yanayi ta Duniya (WMO) ta lissafa wannan lamari a matsayin daya daga cikin biyar mafi karfi da aka taba gani. Wannan lamari, tare da ci gaba da dumamar yanayi, ya tura shekarar 2024 zuwa shekarar da ta fi zafi a tarihi kuma ta kara tsananta fari a fannin noma a sassan Gabashin Afirka da Kudancin Asiya.
Wani babban bincike da aka yi a cikin Nature Communications a shekarar 2014 ya nuna cewa abubuwan da suka faru a El Niño galibi suna haifar da haɗakar yawan amfanin gona na masara, shinkafa, da alkama na duniya ya karkata daga matsakaicin -4.3% zuwa +0.8%, yayin da waken soya suka amfana da kusan kashi 2.1% zuwa 5.4% saboda ingantaccen ruwan sama a wasu sassan Amurka. Bayan waɗannan bayanai akwai babban bambanci a yankuna - sakamakon bai dogara da ƙarfin abin da ya faru ba, sai dai a kan inda da abin da kuke shukawa.
Hasashen bambancin yankuna a shekarar 2026
Dokokin tarihi sun samar mana da taswirar haɗari mara cikawa amma mai amfani.
Indiya da Kudancin Asiya: Indiya ce ke samar da kusan kashi 24% na noman shinkafa a duniya. Damina ta Indiya tana da alaƙa mai kama da ta littafi mai kama da ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) - a lokacin shekarun El Niño, damina ta bazara gabaɗaya ta yi rauni. Manyan abubuwan da suka faru guda uku masu ƙarfi a 1997-98, 2015-16, da 2023-24 kowannensu ya haifar da takunkumin fitar da kaya a New Delhi, wanda hakan ya haifar da matsin lamba ga ƙasashen da ke shigo da shinkafa a duniya. Rahoton gargaɗin FAO na yanzu ya bayyana a sarari cewa haɗarin fari a fannin noma a Kudancin Asiya da Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya shine "mafi muni", tare da yuwuwar sama da kashi 50% a wasu yankunan da ke fuskantar fari.
Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya: Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, da Cambodia duk suna cikin yankin da tarihi ya fi fuskantar haɗari. Man dabino yana da matuƙar haɗari - Malaysia da Indonesia su ne manyan masu samar da man dabino a duniya, kuma ƙasashen biyu ba su tsira daga mummunan bala'in El Niño a baya ba. Auduga da sukari suma suna cikin rukunin masu haɗarin gaske.
Ostiraliya: Ana ɗaukar Ostiraliya a matsayin ƙasar da ke samar da alkama mafi saurin kamuwa da siginar ENSO a duniya. A lokacin shekarun El Niño, ruwan sama a Queensland da New South Wales sau da yawa yana nuna bambanci sosai daga matakan da aka saba, wanda ke haifar da barazana kai tsaye ga alkama da sha'ir na bazara.
Brazil: Yanayin ya fi rikitarwa. El Niño yawanci yana kawo ƙarin ruwan sama zuwa kudancin Brazil, wanda ke da amfani ga ci gaban waken soya. Duk da haka, yawan ruwan sama na iya haifar da raguwar ingancin kofi da kuma ƙaruwar cututtukan wasu amfanin gona masu 'ya'yan itace. Rahoton JRC na Tarayyar Turai ya nuna cewa ana sa ran farashin alkama mai tauri a duniya zai tashi sosai a yanayin da ake ciki na ƙaruwar zafin El Niño, yayin da farashin waken soya da alkama mai tauri na hunturu na iya faɗuwa saboda fa'idodin da ake samu daga yankunan da ake nomawa a Amurka.
Gabashin Afirka da Sahel: Wannan yankin yana bin wata dabara da ta saba wa ta Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya - a lokacin shekarun El Niño, ruwan sama yana ƙaruwa, amma a cikin yanayin lalacewar ƙasa da rashin ingantattun ababen more rayuwa, ruwan sama mai ƙarfi ba zai iya haifar da girbi ba, amma yana kawo ambaliyar ruwa da zaizayar ƙasa. Hukumar FAO ta fitar da gargaɗi ga Somaliya, kuma kayan aikin gargaɗin INFORM na JRC ya rarraba wasu ƙasashen Tsakiyar Afirka a matsayin waɗanda ke cikin "babban haɗarin jin kai".
China: A tarihi, tasirin El Niño ga China ya bambanta daga yanki zuwa yanki. Kudancin China ya fuskanci ruwan sama mai yawa, yayin da arewa da arewa maso gabas suka fuskanci karuwar barazanar fari. A lokacin 1997-98, an sami babban ambaliyar ruwa a kudancin China da kuma mummunan fari a arewa maso gabas, wanda ya shafi girbin wannan shekarar.
Dabaru na watsawa na kasuwar sinadarai na noma
Alaƙar da ke tsakanin abubuwan da ke faruwa a yanayi da kasuwar magungunan kashe kwari ba wata alaƙa ce mai kyau ba kuma tana buƙatar a tattauna ta a sarari.
Haɗarin raguwar buƙata: A lokacin fari, shirye-shiryen manoma na shuka da kuma yawan jarin da suke zubawa, kuma siyan magungunan kashe kwari galibi yana ɗaya daga cikin kuɗaɗen da suka fi saurin raguwa. A lokacin taron El Niño a Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya a 1997-98, buƙatar magungunan kashe kwari a Indonesia da Philippines ta ragu sosai. Wannan ya faru ne saboda raguwar yankin amfanin gona da kuma wani ɓangare saboda manoma sun rage jarin su bayan da kuɗin shigarsu ya ragu.
Canje-canje a cikin gine-gine a cikin kwari da cututtuka: Ruwan sama mai yawa a wasu yankuna yana haifar da yawan kamuwa da cututtuka, yayin da fari na iya haifar da mamayewa ko barkewar wasu kwari. A tarihi, akwai alaƙa tsakanin shekarun El Niño da ayyukan kwari masu ƙaura kamar fara. A cikin 2023-24, haɗuwar yanayin zafi mai yawa da El Niño ya haifar da ayyukan kwari marasa kyau kamar fararen kwari da ƙwari a kasuwannin wurare masu zafi da yawa.
Tashoshin ruwa da matsin lamba na jari: A cikin shekarun da ke fama da matsanancin yanayin noma, share kaya a tashoshin rarraba kaya sau da yawa yana raguwa da kwata ɗaya zuwa biyu. A kasuwar Brazil a lokacin rage kaya daga 2023 zuwa 24, tasirin El Niño ya haifar da ruwan sama mai yawa a yankin, kuma cututtukan waken soya (kamar tsatsar waken soya ta Asiya) a wasu yankuna sun ta'azzara saboda yanayin danshi mai yawa. Wannan bambancin yanki ga masu fitar da kayan noma na kasar Sin yana nufin cewa a cikin wannan shekarar, alamun buƙata daga kasuwanni daban-daban na iya zama akasin haka.
Haɗakar matsin lamba daga takin zamani da magungunan kashe kwari: Ya kamata a lura cewa isowar El Niño a shekarar 2026, tare da tsauraran hanyoyin sufuri a mashigin Hormuz saboda halin da ake ciki a Gabas ta Tsakiya, ya riga ya sanya matsin lamba kan fitar da takin urea da phosphate. A cikin rahotonsa a watan Maris na wannan shekarar, Paul Donovan, babban masanin tattalin arziki na UBS, ya bayyana a sarari cewa: "Ƙarancin takin nitrogen bazai zama babbar barazana ga farashin noma a wannan shekarar ba; babban El Niño shine."
Ingancin samfuran yanayi ya ragu.
A cikin mawuyacin hali, ingancin samfuran yanayi zai ragu. Rahoton JRC ya bayyana a sarari cewa idan lamarin ya kai ga "ƙarfin da ba a taɓa gani ba", tsarinsa ya wuce abin da aka yi tsammani daga abubuwan da suka faru a tarihi. Wani yanayi na +4°C a cikin Niño 3.4 bai taɓa faruwa ba a zamanin rikodin kayan kida. Wani abu makamancin haka a 1877-78 ya haifar da yunwa a duniya, amma ba mu da bayanai na zamani da za su iya yin kamanceceniya mai tsauri.
Saboda haka, matsayin wannan labarin shine: Shirya haɗari bisa ga abubuwan da suka faru "mai ƙarfi zuwa mai ƙarfi" a cikin kewayon yuwuwar kashi 70% na yanzu a matsayin yanayin farko, maimakon yin fare akan yanayin wutsiya na +4°C. Na farko ya riga ya yi tsanani sosai kuma yana da tarihi mai yawa da za a dogara da shi.
Wani tushen rashin tabbas yana cikin ƙarfin mayar da martani na noma na China. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, China ta ƙara yawan jarinta a cikin gargaɗin yanayi na noma da kayayyakin more rayuwa na ban ruwa. Ƙarfinta na jure fari ba zai iya kwatantawa da na shekarar 1997-98 ba. Yanayin da ake ciki a Indiya iri ɗaya ne - tsarin ban ruwa bayan juyin juya halin kore ya shafi wani yanki mai yawa na yankunan da ake noman shinkafa, yana ƙara juriyarta ga yanayin damina mara kyau. Duk da haka, bayanan tarihi sun ba da haske kan alkiblar haɗarin.
Wataƙila taron El Niño na 2026 ya riga ya fara. Tambayar a zahiri ita ce kololuwar ƙarfinsa, da kuma ko tasirin yanayi da teku zai sa ya wuce tarihin tarihi.
Ga harkokin noma na duniya, wannan yana nufin cewa rashin tabbas a tsarin zai ci gaba da kasancewa a buɗe daga rabin na biyu na wannan shekarar har zuwa bazara na 2027. Ga masana'antar noma, wannan alama ce ta bambancin buƙatu a yankuna da kuma gwajin damuwa don daidaiton sarkar samar da kayayyaki.
Tarihi ya nuna mana cewa tasirin noma na babban El Niño yawanci yana da jinkiri na watanni 6 zuwa 12 - asarar amfanin gona ta gaske galibi tana bayyana ne kawai bayan kololuwar lamarin. Wannan yana nufin cewa farashin da ake gani a kasuwa a halin yanzu ba su da cikakken farashi a cikin wannan haɗarin.
Lokacin Saƙo: Yuni-23-2026
