Bayan barkewar yakin Rasha da Ukraine, hauhawar farashin kayan abinci a duniya ya haifar da tasiri ga samar da abinci a duniya, wanda ya sa duniya ta kara fahimtar cewa tushen samar da abinci matsala ce ta zaman lafiya da ci gaban duniya.
A shekarar 2023/24, sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyakin amfanin gona na kasa da kasa, adadin hatsi da waken soya da ake fitarwa a duniya ya sake kai wani matsayi, lamarin da ya sa farashin nau'in abinci iri-iri a kasashen da ke kan kasuwa bayan jerin sabbin hatsi ya ragu matuka. To sai dai kuma sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da babban bankin Amurka ya kawo a yankin Asiya, farashin shinkafa ya tashi matuka a kasuwannin duniya inda ya kai wani matsayi mai girma domin shawo kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin gida da kuma dakile fitar da shinkafa a Indiya. .
Gudanar da kasuwa a China, Indiya, da Rasha sun shafi ci gaban samar da abinci a cikin 2024, amma gabaɗaya, samar da abinci a duniya a cikin 2024 yana kan matsayi mai girma.
Abin da ya dace a ba da hankali sosai, farashin zinare na duniya yana ci gaba da yin tasiri mai girma, da saurin raguwar darajar kuɗin duniya, farashin abinci a duniya yana da matsi sama, da zarar yawan samar da buƙatu na shekara-shekara, babban farashin kayan abinci na iya kaiwa wani matsayi mai girma. sake, don haka bukatar da ake da ita a halin yanzu dole ne a mai da hankali sosai ga samar da abinci, don hana girgiza.
Noman hatsi na duniya
A cikin 2023/24, yankin hatsi na duniya zai kasance hekta miliyan 75.6, karuwa da 0.38% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata. Jimillar abin da aka fitar ya kai tan biliyan 3.234, kuma yawan amfanin gona a kowace kadada ya kai 4,277 kg/ha, wanda ya haura 2.86% da 3.26% bisa na shekarar da ta gabata, bi da bi. (Jimilar noman shinkafa ya kai tan biliyan 2.989, sama da kashi 3.63 cikin 100 idan aka kwatanta da na bara.)
A cikin 2023/24, yanayin yanayin yanayin aikin gona a Asiya, Turai da Amurka gabaɗaya yana da kyau, kuma hauhawar farashin abinci yana tallafawa haɓaka sha'awar shuka manoma, yana kawo haɓakar yawan amfanin ƙasa da yanki na kayan abinci na duniya.
Daga cikin su, yankin alkama da masara da shinkafa a shekarar 2023/24 ya kai kadada miliyan 601.5, wanda ya ragu da kashi 0.56% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata; Jimillar abin da aka fitar ya kai tan biliyan 2.79, wanda ya karu da 1.71%; Yawan amfanin ƙasa a kowace yanki ya kai kilogiram 4638/ha, ƙaruwa na 2.28% bisa na shekarar da ta gabata.
Abubuwan da ake samarwa a Turai da Kudancin Amurka sun farfado bayan fari a 2022; Tabarbarewar noman shinkafa a Kudu da Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya ya yi mummunar tasiri ga kasashe masu tasowa.
Farashin abinci na duniya
A cikin Fabrairu 2024, ma'aunin farashin kayan abinci na duniya * ya kasance US $353 / ton, ƙasa da 2.70% kowane wata da 13.55% a shekara; A cikin Janairu-Fabrairu 2024, matsakaicin farashin kayan abinci na duniya ya kasance $357 / ton, ƙasa da kashi 12.39% duk shekara.
Tun daga sabuwar shekarar noman noma (farawa a watan Mayu), farashin kayan abinci na duniya ya ragu, kuma matsakaicin farashin kayan abinci daga watan Mayu zuwa Fabrairu ya kasance dalar Amurka 370/ton, ya ragu da kashi 11.97% duk shekara. Daga cikin su, matsakaicin farashin alkama da masara da shinkafa a watan Fabrairu ya kai dalar Amurka 353/ton, ya ragu da kashi 2.19% a duk wata da kashi 12.0% duk shekara; Matsakaicin ƙimar a cikin Janairu-Fabrairu 2024 shine $357 / ton, ƙasa da 12.15% shekara-shekara; Matsakaicin sabuwar shekara daga Mayu zuwa Fabrairu shine $365 / ton, ƙasa da $365 / ton duk shekara.
Jimillar farashin hatsi da ma'aunin farashin manyan hatsi uku sun ragu sosai a sabuwar shekarar noman, wanda ke nuni da cewa yanayin samar da kayayyaki a sabuwar shekarar noman ya inganta. Farashin yanzu gabaɗaya ya ragu zuwa matakan da aka gani na ƙarshe a watan Yuli da Agusta 2020, kuma ci gaba da faɗuwa na iya yin illa ga samar da abinci a duniya a sabuwar shekara.
Samar da hatsi na duniya da ma'aunin buƙatu
A shekarar 2023/24, jimillar hatsin da ake noman shinkafa bayan shinkafa ya kai tan biliyan 2.989, wanda ya karu da kashi 3.63 bisa na shekarar da ta gabata, kuma karuwar kayan da aka samu ya sa farashin ya ragu matuka.
Ana sa ran jimillar al'ummar duniya za ta kai biliyan 8.026, wanda ya karu da kashi 1.04 bisa dari a shekarar da ta gabata, kuma karuwar samar da abinci da wadata ya zarce karuwar yawan al'ummar duniya. Amfanin hatsi a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 2.981, kuma hannun jarin da ya ƙare a shekara ya kai tan miliyan 752, tare da ƙimar aminci na 25.7%.
Yawan fitarwar kowane mutum ya kai kilogiram 372.4, 1.15% ya fi na shekarar da ta gabata. Dangane da amfani, abincin da ake amfani da shi shine kilogiram 157.8, abincin abinci shine kilogiram 136.8, sauran amfani shine kilogiram 76.9, kuma yawan amfanin shine kilogiram 371.5. kilogiram. Faduwar farashin zai haifar da haɓakar sauran amfani, wanda zai hana farashin ci gaba da faɗuwa a cikin lokaci na gaba.
Outlook samar da hatsi na duniya
Bisa kididdigar kididdigar farashin da ake yi a duniya a halin yanzu, yankin da ake shuka hatsi a duniya a shekarar 2024 ya kai kadada miliyan 760, yawan amfanin gona a kowace kadada ya kai kilogiram 4,393 a kowace hekta, kuma jimillar abin da ake fitarwa a duniya ya kai tan miliyan 3,337. Yawan shinkafar ya kai tan biliyan 3.09, wanda ya karu da kashi 3.40 bisa na shekarar da ta gabata.
Dangane da yanayin bunkasuwar yankin da yawan amfanin gona a kowace yanki na manyan kasashen duniya, nan da shekarar 2030, yankin da ake shuka hatsi a duniya zai kai kadada miliyan 760, yawan amfanin gona a kowace yanki zai kai kilogiram 4,748 a kowace hekta, kuma jimillar duniya. Abubuwan da ake fitarwa za su kasance tan biliyan 3.664, ƙasa da lokacin da ya gabata. Ci gaban sannu a hankali a China, Indiya da Turai ya haifar da raguwar kiyasin noman hatsi a duniya ta yanki.
Nan da shekara ta 2030, Indiya, Brazil, Amurka da Sin za su kasance kan gaba wajen samar da abinci a duniya. A shekarar 2035, ana sa ran yankin da ake shuka hatsi a duniya zai kai kadada miliyan 789, inda za a samu yawan amfanin gona na kilogiram 5,318 a kowace ha, kuma jimillar samar da hatsi a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 4.194.
Daga halin da ake ciki yanzu, babu karancin filayen noma a duniya, amma ci gaban da ake samu a kowace raka'a yana tafiyar hawainiya, wanda ke bukatar kulawa sosai. Ƙarfafa haɓakar yanayin muhalli, gina ingantaccen tsarin gudanarwa, da haɓaka aikace-aikacen kimiyya da fasaha na zamani a cikin aikin gona ya ƙayyade makomar abinci ta duniya.
Lokacin aikawa: Afrilu-08-2024